Date: 2025 Nov 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.0 flare at 02/0026 UTC from a region beyond the east limb. Region 4267 (N02W65, Cso/beta) produced a long duration C8.2 flare at 02/1246 UTC. Region 4273 (S12E27, Dri/beta) rapidly emerged and was subsequently numbered. A new region was observed near N23E83, but remains unnumbered at this time in favor of better viewing conditions for proper classification. The remaining active regions were unremarkable in comparison. A large CME was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning just after 02/1100 UTC, but giving the source location just beyond the eastern limb it is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. No Earth-directed CMEs were oberved in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate) through 05 Nov as old active regions are anticipated to return to the northwestern limb.Energetic Particle The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 10,260 pfu at 02/1650UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels as HSS influence wanes. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field was 5-8 nT and the Bz component underwent a few southward deflections reaching -5 to -6 nT. Solar wind speeds varied between approximately 490 km/s and 620 km/s, but overall displayed a decreasing trend. Phi was predominantly positive.
Forecast: Solar wind parameters near-Earth are expected to reflect the influence of a waning CH HSS, with a return of ambient-like conditions on 05 Nov.
Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from unsettled to active levels, with a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) storming period, on 03 Nov. Primarily quiet and unsettled levels are expected on 04 Nov as HSS influences draw to a close with quiet conditions prevailing on 05 Nov.