Date: 2026 Mar 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar activity continued at low levels, characterized by less frequent C-class flaring compared to the previous period. Regions 4381 (N08E42, Eao/beta) and 4384 (N10E67, Ehi/beta) remained the primary drivers of activity. Region 4384 rotated further onto the disk, and while foreshortening still hinders definitive magnetic analysis, additional trailing spots were observed rotating into view. This region produced the largest event of the period, a C4.5 flare at 02/0438 UTC.Region 4378 (N15E13, Cho/beta) transitioned from an H- back to a C-group as trailing spots exhibited transitory behavior, though the lead spot remained stable in size and the region was inactive. Region 4380 (S21E25, Bxo/beta) decayed into simple, non-penumbral spots. Region 4383 (N15W23, Bxo/beta) remained inactive and stable in overall extent, despite minor spot flux variations (disappearing and reappearing) within its positive polarity pole.For eruptive activity, two filament eruptions occurred: a 20-degree filament near N53E28 (02/0230 UTC) and an 11-degree filament near N10W68 (02/1000 UTC). The northern eruption was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 02/0936 UTC, while the western eruption appeared in C2 imagery at 02/1036 UTC. Modeling indicates no Earth-directed components from either event, and no other CMEs of interest were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 05 Mar. Energetic Particle The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 14,495 pfu observed at 02/1810 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 03-05 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 05 Mar.
Solar wind parameters were indicative of an ambient solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds continued to trend downward, reaching around 300 km/s by periods end. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained steady, hovering between 4 and 6 nT, while the North-South (Bz) component fluctuated between +5/-5 nT. The Phi angle stabilized into a predominantly positive (away from the Sun) orientation for most of the period, marking a clear transition following the previous periods sector instability.At 02/2319 UTC, a small transient may have arrived: there is a small discontinuity in the wind speed (sudden jump to ~350 km/s), Bt (sudden small increase to 8 nT) and phi angle, with a simultaneous scramble and following slight rotation of the magnetic field components.
Forecast: Enhancements in solar wind conditions are possible 03-04 Mar due to the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). A return toward a more nominal, ambient regime is likely by 05 Mar.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels on 03-04 Mar as +CH HSS influences begin with a chance for isolated active periods. Conditions are likely to return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels by 05 Mar.