Date: 2026 Jan 08 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar activity continued at low levels. The largest flare was a C7.4/Sf at 07/0612 UTC from Region 4334 (S16E07, Cai/beta-gamma). Slight growth and separation was observed in this region. Growth and increased magnetic complexity was observed in Region 4336 (S10E41, Eki/beta-gamma-delta). New Region 4337 (N25W35, Cro/beta) was numbered.Multiple faint CMEs were observed off the SE limb originating from Region 4334; however modelling appeared to show no Earth-directed component.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance (45%) for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance (10%) for isolated X-class flares (R3-Strong) over 08-10 Jan. Energetic Particle The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 1,260 pfu observed at 07/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels through 08 Jan followed by a decrease to moderate levels on 09-10 Jan with the arrival of a CH HSS. There is a slight chance (10%) for a greater than 10 MeV proton event through 10 Jan.
Solar wind parameters became mildly enhanced after 07/1247 UTC, with the total magnetic field (Bt) ending the reporting period at 10 nT and the Bz (north-south) component deflecting strongly southward after 07/1650 UTC, ending the reporting period at -9 nT. Solar wind speed remained nominal between 311-370 km/s. Phi angle was in a negative (towards the Sun) sector.
Forecast: Mildly enhanced conditions are expected on 08 Jan. A further enhancement is expected early on 09 Jan with the arrival of a CIR/CH HSS and possible influences from the 06 Jan CME. Solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s is likely based on recurrent values. HSS influence is expected to persist through 10 Jan.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 08 Jan, due to the potential arrival of CIR/CH HSS influences late in the UTC day, possibly compounded with influence from a CME that left the Sun on 06 Jan. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions are expected early on 09 Jan as the disturbance continues to pass, with unsettled to active levels likely on 10 Jan as we fully enter the CH HSS.