Date: 2024 Apr 25 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3638 (S17W74, Cai/beta) produced the strongest flare of the period, an M2.0 flare (R1-Minor) at 24/2259 UTC. AR 3638 also produced a C9.4 flare at 24/1410 that had associated Type IV and Type II radio sweeps (est. 800 km/s initially reported, but revised down to 379 km/s in the final report) as well as a faint CME off the SW in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 24/1436 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event determined the CME to be ahead and south of Earths orbit.Newly numbered Region 3658 (S21W32, Box/beta) was relatively quiet. Growth was observed in Region 3648 (N18W38, Dai/beta-gamma) and 3654 (S08E25, Eac/beta). The remaining 14 spotted active regions on the visible disk were either mostly stable or in gradual decay.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate over the next three days, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong).Energetic Particle The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was peaked near high levels but remained moderate, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 24-26 Apr due to the flare potential and location of several active regions on the visible disk. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is forecast to continue at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar wind conditions reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly between ~350-400 km/s. Phi angle transitioned from negative to positive between 24/0615-1530 UTC.
Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over 25-27 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possibly multiple transients that are suspected to pass by in the vicinity of Earth over the next few days.
Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is likely to range from quiet to active levels on 25-27 Apr due to the anticipated influence of CH HSS activity combined with potential transient influence from the edge of pass CMEs in the vicinity of Earth. A chance for minor (G1) or greater geomagnetic storms exists over 25-26 Apr should these features carry periods of significant southward Bz.