Date: 2025 Jul 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4123 (S28W43, Dro/beta) exhibited slight growth as it underwent consolidation in its leading spots. Region 4126 (N07W76, Dro/beta) redeveloped as it gained rudimentary penumbra. Region 4129 (N02E17, Cri/beta-gamma) produced a C1.1 flare at 01/0002 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. Regions 4131 (N08W22, Dro/beta) and 4132 (S18E50, Hrx/alpha) were numbered this period while Region 4130 (S12, L=141) decayed to plage. Additionally, new spots were noted near S17W64 that remained unnumbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persist through 04 July.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,650 pfu observed at 01/1515 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 04 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 04 July.
Solar wind parameters reflected weakening negative polarity CH HSS influence. Total IMF strength ranged 4-7 nT and the Bz component was +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from approximately 500 km/s to near 350 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative while undertaking several brief excursions into the positive solar sector.
Forecast: Enhancements in the IMF are likely on 02 July with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 28 Jun and are anticipated to continue, although weakened, into 03 July. An additional enhancement due to faster solar wind influences is expected by early 04 July.
Forecast: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 02-03 July due to the aforementioned CME effects followed by negative polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 04 July as CH HSS effects continue.